Falls and Rises: How Gold Prices Changed in Kyrgyzstan in June and Since the Beginning of 2025

14:00, July 10, 2025, Bishkek – 24.kg, Nargiza TOKOEVA Recently, global gold prices have been rising at an unusually rapid pace, repeatedly hitting record highs. The market has now somewhat stabilized. The surge in demand for the precious metal has been driven by several powerful factors: Aggressive purchases by central banks (especially BRICS countries) aiming to reduce dependence on the US dollar; Global geopolitical and trade tensions (tariff wars, sanctions, and regional conflicts); Weakening of the US dollar. All of these factors have made gold more attractive as a safe-haven asset. According to the London market, the most recent record was set on April 22, 2025, when the price of one troy ounce reached $3,434 on the London exchange. However, Kyrgyzstan recorded its highest local gold price on June 16, 2025. On April 23 — the day global gold prices hit a historical high — the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan set the price at 305,507.5 soms per ounce. But on June 16, the price peaked at 307,520 soms. At the beginning of June, the selling price of one ounce of gold by the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic was 293,513.5 soms. Afterward, sharp fluctuations and a decline in price occurred. Following the onset of Israel’s military operation against Iran, gold prices spiked again to 305,507.5 soms, which is 11,994 soms higher than at the beginning of the month. However, by June 30, the price had dropped again to 292,812.5 soms per ounce. Since the beginning of 2025, according to the National Bank, the price of gold has risen by 61,520.5 soms. On January 8 (the first working day of the year), a gold bar weighing 31.1035 grams was priced at 236,817 soms, while on July 8, the price had reached 296,868.5 soms. As a result, gold in Kyrgyzstan has risen by 25.36% since the beginning of the year. The record price surge in 2025 reflects not just market fluctuations, but deep shifts in the global economy and financial priorities. Gold Price Forecast: Stability, Growth, or Correction? Economist and political analyst Iskender Sharsheev shared his outlook with 24.kg on the gold market over the coming months and outlined possible scenarios. According to his short-term forecast — from July to December 2025 — the price of gold is expected to stabilize around $3,340 per troy ounce. Gold remains a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical instability. Strong demand continues from the central banks of India, China, and the USA. "Analysts warn of potential volatility — price swings in either direction. Bloomberg, for instance, predicts a temporary decline to $2,660–$2,685, a drop of about 1.5–2% from current levels. The current correction is hovering between $2,720 and $2,800, and under unfavorable conditions, gold could fall to $2,550 per ounce," the economist noted. At the same time, according to Bank of America, if current factors like inflation, geopolitical risks, and military conflicts persist, gold may surge to $4,000 per ounce in the second half of 2025. Other analysts, such as PRECON, expect a decrease to $3,230 in August 2025 (a drop of 1.8%) and a potential rise to $3,422 in November (an increase of 5%). Sharsheev also noted that U.S. monetary policy will significantly influence the market. The Federal Reserve plans to reduce the key interest rate to 4.5% by the end of 2025, which could weaken the dollar and thereby push gold prices upward. Mid-Term Forecasts Also Indicate an Upward Trend According to Sharsheev: Analysts at Light Finance suggest potential levels of $3,900–$5,100 per ounce in 2026; Goldman Sachs predicts prices around $4,000; APECON forecasts a possible rise to $4,500. For 2027, some analysts project gold could reach $5,100–$5,919 per troy ounce. "Nevertheless, risks of a correction remain. If investors begin shifting en masse to other assets, such as cryptocurrencies, or if the gold market enters a 'bearish phase,' prices may fall to $2,600. In that case, those who invested at higher levels could incur losses. Therefore, each investor must approach decisions consciously, remain aware of the risks, and avoid concentrating all investments in a single asset. Portfolio diversification remains the key tool for risk mitigation," concluded Iskender Sharsheev. Source: 24.kg